The Fall of Viktor Orban: Political, Economic and European Causes Behind a Historic Defeat.

Photo by Leonhard_Niederwimmer on pixabay.com

Viktor Orbán, who for 16 years governed Hungary, often steering it away from the European Union’s trajectory, was defeated in the elections held on Saturday, April 12, and Sunday, April 13, 2026, in Hungary. The Hungarian people chose instead to vote for the pro-European conservative Péter Magyar, who won 138 seats, while Fidesz, Orbán’s party, stopped at 54 seats. Europe breathed a sigh of relief, while for sovereignist movements across European countries, the result was more troubling viewing him as the “mastermind” of the “illiberal” model of democracy. Viktor Orbán had been Prime Minister of Hungary since 1998, since 2011 Hungarian democracy has been fundamentally transformed by the constitutional reforms he introduced. These reforms reduced freedom of expression, individual liberties, and press freedom, weakening the constitutional court and judicial power, and leading a regression of democracy in Hungary. This culminated in 2014, when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, in a major speech, for the first time expressed his intention to build an “illiberal democracy” in Hungary.

A closer look at Hungary’s transformation over the past 16 years shows that the loss of power was not accidental, but rather the outcome of intertwined political, economic, and European dynamics. On the political front, Viktor Orbán’s decline began in 2024 with a major scandal involving Endre Kónya, the former deputy director of the Kossuth Zsuzsa Children’s Home in Bicske, who had been convicted of assisting in the cover-up of child sexual abuse committed by his superior. The scandal triggered a public uprising led by Péter Magyar, who used it as a platform for the European Parliament elections that same year, winning seven of Hungary’s 21 seats.                           

Foreign policy played a central role in Orbán’s campaign, but became one of its key weaknesses. In his campaign he attempted to convince voters that the opposition, led by Péter Magyar, represented a threat to national security. In particular, he portrayed Magyar as a “puppet” of Kyiv who would drag Hungary into a war against Russia, while also advancing a strongly pessimistic view of the European Union. This narrative eventually backfired. Allegations of Russian interference in the Hungarian elections emerged and as a result, rather than reinforcing his image as a defender of Hungary, Orbán increasingly came to be seen as too closely aligned with Russia.

From an economic perspective, Viktor Orbán rose to greater power 16 years ago by criticizing the system responsible for the 2008 financial crisis. In the second half of the 2010s, Hungary experienced a period of economic growth, driven largely by European Union funding and foreign industrial investment. However, this prosperity was not primarily the result of Orbán’s policies, but rather depended heavily on external conditions. Over time, Orbán developed a nationalist economic model in which the state expanded its control over key sectors, while resources, including EU funds, were increasingly allocated to companies and individuals loyal to the government. This system is commonly described as “crony capitalism.” As a consequence, the economy became less dynamic, with weaker competition, reduced innovation, and lower overall efficiency. 

Like all systems, however, its structural weaknesses became more visible during periods of crisis. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these vulnerabilities were exposed, highlighting low productivity, limited innovation, and insufficient levels of investment. Péter Magyar’s rise was also facilitated by the government’s increasingly anti-European stance. In his victory speech, Magyar promised an ambitious agenda aimed at restoring the rule of law and rebuilding Hungary’s relationship with the European Union. In September 2018, the European Parliament called for the activation of a mechanism to assess whether Hungary was in breach of core EU values. Later, in 2022, the European Commission activated a budget conditionality mechanism against Hungary.

As a result, the Commission suspended the disbursement of EU cohesion funds, as well as Hungary’s share of the post-COVID recovery program. Some funding has since been partially restored, in part to avoid Hungary using its veto power to block EU decisions in other areas, including support for Ukraine. The Court of Justice of the European Union has also issued several rulings against Hungary. In June 2024, it imposed financial sanctions, including an ongoing daily penalty, over Hungary’s non-compliance with a 2020 ruling concerning violations of EU asylum law.

It is clear that the European Union still lacks a coherent strategy to address democratic backsliding within its member states. Péter Magyar’s election could offer an opportunity to confront these structural issues. With the 2027 elections approaching, the EU must act swiftly. The coming months will determine whether Magyar’s victory represents a real turning point or only a temporary pause.

written by Sofia Martone